The best thing to do in the offseason is to predict how the next will go, do it in public, and then let people come back later and tell you how wrong you were. Fortunately for Penn State, the Nittany Lions have gotten to the point where — short of a wild upset — trying to predict how the season will go is not exactly rocket science. That being said, you could talk yourself into Penn State losing three regular season games or just one this year. Undefeated? Seems like a bridge too far with this schedule.
Nevertheless here’s a way-too-early prediction.
@West Virginia: West Virginia went into 2023 with pretty low expectations and ended up having a much better season than nearly everyone predicted en route to posting a 9-4 record. Garrett Greene returns at quarterback and the Mountaineers have some talented receivers to help him out. There’s nothing about opening the season in Morgantown that sounds like an easy ask, and a second crack at the Nittany Lions with a more realized sense of confidence poses a legitimate challenge for Penn State in Week 1. Still, it’s hard to argue that Penn State isn’t the better team on paper, and even if there’s some rust to knock off over the course of this game, there’s more faith to be had in the Nittany Lions figuring things out than West Virginia. This game is probably more stressful than fans would like, but that’s not the same thing as a loss. [WIN]
Bowling Green: The Falcons will have the pleasure of playing at Penn State and Texas A&M in back-to-back weeks and both games should go about the same. Bowling Green won at Georgia Tech last season and lost by six to Minnesota in the Quick Lane Bowl to close out the year which does raise an eyebrow. Quarterback Connor Bazelak — a former starting quarterback under Penn State defensive coordinator Tom Allen when he was head coach at Indiana — will come to Beaver Stadium looking finish his career on a high note, but it’s hard to pick the Falcons to win this one. Maybe another game with some rust, but the Nittany Lions come out on top. [WIN]
Kent State: The Golden Flashes might have a great nickname, but a 1-11 record last year doesn’t exactly strike the fear of God into people. Never say never, but the question in this game might be IF Kent State scores, not if Penn State wins. [WIN]
Illinois: The second year for Bret Bielema at Illinois went a lot worse than the first, but the Illini will hope that a second season under defensive coordinator Aaron Henry and a third under offensive coordinator Barry Lunney Jr. will help everyone get back on the same page. If Penn State is 3-0 at this point in the year, there’s no real reason to think Illinois is going to be the one to stop the Nittany Lions. Then again, there was no reason to think their last meeting at Beaver Stadium was going to go into nine overtimes either. This is the time of year where Penn State’s defense starts to make its money and the time of year when Penn State’s offense could start to find its stride. If that’s the case, don’t worry too much about this one. [WIN]
UCLA: This game looks different on paper if now former head coach Chip Kelly hadn’t jumped ship for the OC job at Ohio State. The Bruins are the often forgotten addition of the four teams joining the Big Ten this year, and that might not change right away. UCLA will be coming off a trip to LSU and home matchup with Oregon before traveling across the country to play Penn State. As if it wasn’t travel heavy enough, UCLA opens the season on the road at Hawaii. All told, this might be a tired team coming into an unfamiliar place with a new head coach and potentially some quarterback controversy. Can’t pick against Penn State at home here. Fewer questions, and more answers. [WIN]
@USC: The funnier version of this game is if James Franklin was coaching at USC, but without that happening there is still plenty to look forward to. Penn State has played well during its recent trips out west but has also struggled at times against really aggressive and talented passing teams (see: Ole Miss). Lincoln Riley will find out really fast if his offenses will work in the Big Ten, but there’s no reason to think the Trojans won’t find some success in the early going of their Big Ten tenure. Penn State should be rested for this game, but between the travel and USC’s unique style of play compared to most Big Ten teams, this might be a bump in the road for the Nittany Lions. It will come down to how Penn State does against the pass, and the last data point wasn’t flattering. The Trojans will face Michigan and LSU in the weeks prior to this one. [LOSS]
@Wisconsin: The Badgers have USC and Alabama earlier in the year, so everyone will know what to think of them by this point of the season. Overall there’s no reason to doubt Luke Fickell’s ability to figure things out in Madison, but on paper right now this isn’t a game to pick Penn State to lose. That could change as we learn more about Wisconsin right out of the gates, but as it stands, “competitive but comfortable” is the safer bet to make. Only variable is if this game gets kicked into a later time slot when everything ramps up a bit. Another thing to consider: Penn State is coming off a bye. Mixed results for James Franklin in that department, but rest is rest. [WIN].
Ohio State: The Buckeyes are an interesting team this year with a quarterback room to figure out and Ryan Day feeling just a little bit of pressure to get Ohio State back to the elite of the elite. A trip to Oregon a few weeks earlier will come with some Chip Kelly reunion dynamics as the Buckeyes’ new offensive coordinator, but will also give everyone the first good glimpse of what to expect as the stakes get greater in 2024. It seems silly to pick Penn State in this game until it finally wins one again, but Ohio State might be there for the taking and the Nittany Lions are due for one. Andy Kotelnicki is the factor here, giving Ohio State things it hasn’t seen from Penn State before. [WIN]
Washington: The Huskies are so profoundly different this year compared to last that it is almost impossible to judge what you’ll be getting. Much like UCLA, this will involve a lot of travel and a lot of question. Penn State won’t have to travel and should have far fewer questions to answer. When in doubt, pick the team that slept in its own bed and has limited problems to solve. The Nittany Lions are just glad they won’t need to deal with Michael Penix. Games against Michigan and Oregon earlier in the year will tell everyone more about the early stages of Washington’s new era. [WIN].
@Purdue: The Boilermakers host Oregon, have an off week, and then host Northwestern before traveling to Ohio State and then returning home to play Penn State in a five-week stretch that should be quite the test for Purdue. There are reasons to like head coach Ryan Walters, but aside from Northwestern, this is a bruising stretch and the Nittany Lions are at the very end of it. If Penn State is a one-loss team at this point, Purdue isn’t the one to give them loss No. 2. The trap game special is maybe there with a different schedule, but the Boilermakers ought to be tenderized a bit by then. [WIN]
@Minnesota: PJ Fleck and company will be coming off a bye week heading into this game, but it’s hard to say if that’s enough to get the job done here. It’s also hard to say that the Gophers are getting better and, again, if Penn State is closing in on a one-loss regular season, this ain’t where the second loss is showing up. So many things go into how teams are playing this late into the year that injuries and other obstacles can change the dynamics of things, but on paper there’s no reason to really worry about this one other than some broad appreciation for the fact upsets happen. [WIN]
Maryland: This game always seems like it should be closer than it is. The Terps no longer have the talented Taulia Tagovailoa at quarterback and whoever replaces him will almost certainly not have his arm. Until Maryland makes this game competitive there’s no reason to think it will be. [WIN]
